A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
