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Ouch. On one hand, the nation's protracted campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to put on the world's biggest climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help speed up the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to be approved. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests Albanese has viewed UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. The details of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

Turkey is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the heft to stare down the petroleum exporters that offered the Turks with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Several nations feared a summit hindered from the top if his administration led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This is significant. While certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and achieve an ambitious outcome. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the Cop except for making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the most promising opportunity possible to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.