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Beijing has deployed its maritime law enforcement into the waters of the Senkaku islands and military drones past outlying Japan's territory as Beijing ramps up strains over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the latest activity come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has not ruled out the military option. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the current situation without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by China would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the United States and other allies including Japan, which has territory just 68 miles from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, active near the island over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to three drones operating near the island and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, appearing to go unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said Beijing had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from China since Takaichi made her remarks, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, China’s government on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other nations, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards the island.