Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.
Significant Hurdles in the Selection Process
Multiple figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of insiders also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
